Weekend Analysis - Negative Chelsea Concede Ground

If Chelsea don't get a place in the Champions League - and it's now looking like they won't - they simply only have themselves to blame. After a third draw this season with Fulham, 1-1 at Craven Cottage, they've slipped to 6th, two points behind the final Champions League spot with their next game at Arsenal.

It's looking bleak for the Blues, and this performance gave them exactly what they deserved. It was worryingly back to the way they had performed under Andre Villas Boas, lots of possession around the back four with no end product and little attacking threat. The way they set up was mind boggling, with the knowledge that a 2 goal win would lift them into 4th above Newcastle and then Tottenham they chose to play defensively and offer nothing going forward. Lampard, who did manage a goal from the penalty spot, deployed in a deep defensive midfield role making no sense. Meireles just behind the strikers was not going to offer support to Torres, who displayed a forlorn figure with no support. Where does the blame lie for this? Undoubtedly, Di Matteo should hold his hands up and admit the tactics and selection were wrong. Chelsea has 57% possession, yet most of this was in the midfield or Chelsea's half, and they didn't deserve anything more.

That said, Chelsea did get in the lead through a hotly disputed penalty, and should have defended much better. Chelsea over the years have made a name for themselves tightly defending 1-0 leads, yet they always gave the impression they would concede chances, and Dempsey eventually punished them. Ivanovic, who despite his recent goalscoring exploits again showed no desire to defend and help out his team in the right back area. In modern football, with the speed of counter attack and skill of offensive players, every man must do his task in a defensive system, and full backs who simply selfishly do not wish to defend will never be an asset to their side. The change of Mata for Meireles with around 20 minutes remaining was another baffling moment in a damaging Monday night for Chelsea, the Spaniard again offering nothing defensively at a stage when the away team needed to begin closing out the game.

Chelsea need to take a long hard look at themselves and what they want to achieve from this season. They've placed all their eggs into the FA Cup and Champions League basket, but come next September they will sorely regret it if they are plying their trade in the Europa League.

HA

The Barcelona 'Conspiracy'

Undoubtedly, Pep Guardiola's Barcelona are the best footballing side in the world at the moment. They've brushed aside so many teams across so many competitions, whether it be in their own domestic La Liga, in Europe in the Champions League, and further overseas in the Club World Championship with wins over sides from Argentina and Brazil. But, there is a lingering sour taste in the mouth from several sides which offers up the question, do Barcelona receive preferential treatment from officials and governing bodies?

On the face of it, people will argue that this is clearly not true, and merely point to the Catalans success as example of their supreme footballing ability ahead of anything or else. Or, if that doesn't cover it, perhaps good fortune or a slice of luck here and there. Yet, there are incredible stats and matches which heavily suggest otherwise. Now, nobody is actually suggesting that there is a genuine 'conspiracy' but it does appear that they do get more than a helping hand.

Starting with that fateful night in West London, May 2009, where Chelsea were denied 4 clear cut penalties and suffered a gut wrenching defeat on away goals, it was almost too bizarre to be true. How could the referee, Tom Henning Ovrebo, not even award on spot kick to the hosts? The picture above shows a shirt pull from Abidal, as clear as can be. There was an even worse decision later, Pique providing a blatant handball in the area. Nobody, not even the most ardent Barcelona supporter, that the referee didn't see these as penalties. Therefore, he had entered the game with a crystal clear vision that he would not award a penalty against the Spanish visitors. 3 years on, we see Barcelona oust AC Milan in the Camp Nou, this time due to them getting a dubious penalty for a fairly innocuous shirt pull from Nesta. Firstly, for the referee to give this he should automatically be giving a penalty every single time a corner or free kick comes into the box, and also this penalty was awarded before the ball was even in play -against the rules of football. It simply appears too good to be true. Luck, or something more sinister? You can make your own minds up, but the stats certainly point one way.

However, there is something all together more alarming about the potential help that Barcelona are receiving from UEFA. Over the last 3 season, Barcelona have played 9 knockout ties in the Champions League. It is often noted how it is a benefit having the first leg away from home, as you can then fall back onto home comforts and home supports - and with Barcelona currently 53 games unbeaten everybody knows their strengths in front of their own fans. In these 9 ties, Barcelona have played 8 first legs away from home. The only one they didn't? The un-deserved triumph over Chelsea. Surely, this is too much of a co-incidence. To be repeatedly drawn favourably may of course just simply be luck, but over 3 years and 9 ties, it's almost too much to take.

While no slight against officials and governing bodies favouring the current European Champions will ever be proved, all football fans can make their own mind up. However, I will leave you with the words of Jose Mourinho, talking about the upcoming Chelsea vs Barcelona semi final - 'Chelsea won't be allowed to reach the final, and you know why'.

Odds on the 2011//12 Champions League :

Barcelona 1.95

Real Madrid 4

Bayern Munich 6 (TB's Tip)

Chelsea 12.5

Got an opinion? Think I'm completely wrong? Get in touch on Twitter, by searching by under Harry Aitkenhead or @aitkenheadhj

HA

Who Will Be The Master In Augusta?

It has been a year since Rory McIlory famously bottled it on the last day of the 2011 Masters and a lot has happened since then. McIlory has won his first Major at the US Open in Maryland last year, we have had three different Brits at number one in the world and Tiger Woods has been prowling in an ominous fashion with a tournament win in the last month.

So what to expect this year? Well, Phil Mickelson is always hard to write off having won at Augusta 3 times and for there to be an American winner is 4/5. Woods is in to 5/1, with bookies fearing he may have returned to somewhere near his best. Hunter Mahan looks good value at 33/1 and Bill Haas at 90/1 even better. It must surely be the year of the Europeans though?

McIlory, Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood lead them in

to battle as they hope to be the first European to win since Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999. Rose is the most attractive of those at 33/1 and looks good for a place. Donald went well here last year and could have it in him to make the step up this time around and is priced around 16/1. Jason Day and Adam Scott (both joint 2nd last year) should once more lead the charge from the rest of the world.

The infamous Amen Corner.

It has been 33 years since a debutant won at Augusta but watch out for Webb Simpson, currently ranked 10th in the world, as he tackles the course for the first time. In our opinion it is a very open competition, Woods' fitness is still in question and although McIlory proved he can cope with demands of the course last year, he may not have what it takes to win. We are going to steer clear of the two favourites this week in the hope of finding a bit of value.

TB's tips:

Luke Donald - 16/1

Justin Rose - 30/1

Hunter Mahan - 33/1 E/W

Webb Simpson - 66/1 E/W

Adam Scott Top Rest of the World - 9/2

WA

Weekend Analysis - Liverpool Losing Their Calm?

In the wake of yet another defeat for beleaguered Liverpool - they now only have 3 points from a possible 21 - manager Kenny Dalglish urged his side to regain their composure. It's all gone horribly wrong for Liverpool, and if the Premiership had started in January, they'd now be lying in 2nd bottom, with only Wolves below them. So, just why have they lost their cool?

Pepe Reina's red-card for a head-butt, while not the most physical of acts, couldn't be argued and his conduct was utterly ludicrous. An experienced pro like Reina, who has played over 300 times for Liverpool, completely lost his head and it's baffling to understand. Where does this come from? Andy Carroll also suffered a torrid return to his former home, and left the field when substituted to cacophony of boos and jeers, and then delivered a volley of abuse at his manager. Whatever it is, this must be settled in house as soon as possible as Liverpool have become a laughing stock. Maybe this comes from the boss himself, who continue to delude himself offering weak and pathetic excuses and stauch defences of his players even when maybe they don't deserve it.

It must be said however, that Newcastle were again superb. They've had a great season, and deserve all the plaudits that they get.

HA

Weekend Analysis - Chelsea's Future Plan

Chelsea's victory over Aston Villa on Saturday provided a potential case in point of what just could be in store for the Blues over the next few seasons. With Didier Drogba out with an unknown injury, Fernando Torres was given a rare entire 90 minutes, and this proved this change of approach and shape which represents what the Blues are looking to do.

As the picture above shows, David Luiz likes to carry the ball forward and pass his way out of defence, something which he is also clearly encouraged to do. Under previous, more hard working and perhaps not as stylish Chelsea sides defenders like Carvalho, Gallas and Alex were almost the opposite of this type of central defender. Luiz clearly has immense technical skill and talent and as the image depicts he weights a beautiful through-ball to Torres, who nearly scored the games opening goal only to be foiled by Given. The manner in which the Spaniard runs in behind shown also how their attacking threat has changed too. With Drogba looking set to leave in the close-season, it is maybe time for Chelsea to accept the need for a new era, and usher it in with players like Torres central. His preying on the last shoulder of defenders brings greater importance to the midfielders, particularly Juan Mata directly behind him. This is just one clip showing the importance of such new players to the side, and also the direction which they seem to be heading. It is one which does not seem to require power-houses like Drogba, and the Ivorian along with others could find themselves heading out of London in May. Yet, they can still have a significant impact to play in the remainder of the season and their service to the club must not be forgotten in a hurry.

HA