The Race For The Champions League

Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Wigan 4-0 Newcastle
Chelsea 6-1 QPR
Tottenham 2-0 Blackburn

3rd - Arsenal 66 (+24)
4th - Tottenham 62 (+20)
5th - Newcastle 62 (+7)
6th - Chelsea 61 (+23)

Odds :

Arsenal 1.09
Tottenham 1.88
Chelsea 2.4
Newcastle 7

TB's Prediction :

3rd - Arsenal 70
4th - Tottenham 69
5th - Chelsea 68
6th - Newcastle 63

HA

Bayern Oust Real in Madrid - Is The Cup Theirs?

Bayern Munich are another side who will feel that this simply is their year, after they progressed to the final after a penalty shootout against Real Madrid, as they play the showpiece game at their own stadium, the Allians Arena. They weathered an early storm, going 2-0 before levelling the tie, and will feel they deserve their place in the final on the 19th of May. Can they lift the trophy in their home city?

A neutral would definitely say that Bayern are the favourites, with their attacking options of Ribery, Robben, Gomez and Muller sure to test Chelsea's depleted defence. The Blues are definitely without Ivanovic and Terry, and Cahill and Luiz are extremely doubtful with hamstring injuries. Surely Chelsea's luck will run out and teams will not be so wasteful against them? Gomez has scored at a rate of knots this season, yet did miss crucial chances during the semi-final tie, despite also scoring the winner in the home game. On paper they look much strong, but that counts for nothing these days, just ask Barcelona.

Defensively, they also have issues as Alaba and Badstuber from their back four miss out due to suspension, and enforcer Luiz Gustavo likewise. This is the one crumb of comfort for Chelsea who will also be without Ramires and Meireles for their biggest game in recent history. If Di Matteo can find a way to get Mata into central areas he can influence the game more, shifted out to the right against Barcelona he barely even touched the ball.

Still, it would take a brave man to bet against Bayern in Munich. It will need another defensive effort of Greek mythology proportions if Chelsea are to finally get their hands on the trophy that has eluded them so much.

Champions League Odds

Bayern Munich 1.46
Chelsea 3.1

TB's prediction - BM 2-1 CFC

HA

Miracle On Las Ramblas - How Did Chelsea Beat Barcelona?

Whichever piece of commentary you prefer, either Alan Green's  "it's  a miracle" or Gary Neville's cry of "unbelievable" nobody can avoid the astonishing nature of Chelsea's triumph over the Catalan giants. Ignoring momentarily the result, surely there was no chance that a side could take just 17.5% possession through the game and come out the celebrating team? Following Terry's red card, Chelsea had just 6 minutes of the ball in the second half, with Barcelona simply refusing to give up the possession game. There are more incredible stats, but the only one that matters is the 3-2 aggregate scoreline which sends Chelsea to Munich at the expense of possibly the greatest club side of all time. So, just how did Chelsea manage it?

Stoic Defending

Some of Chelsea's rearguard action was nothing short of Herculean, made all the more impressive due to their lack of central defenders after Cahill's injury and Terry's moment of madness. With Bosingwa filling in at the heart of the defence Chelsea had to defend manfully, and so they did. Ashley Cole delivered another full back masterclass, but in truth every one of Chelsea's players put in a mammoth shift at the back. Disciplined defence and committed last ditch tackles were in abundance. The appearance of either Didier Drogba or Fernando Torres in the full back position was truly something to admire, the work rate was un-matched and the desire to succeed could not have been higher.

Cech's Heroics

While Chelsea did defend extremely well, the Blues will be forever in debt to their Czech shot-stopper after a string of saves kept Barcelona at bay. An early block with his legs to deny Messi was of a high quality, but his fingertip save to prevent the Argentine superstar late on was even better. His distribution was also good, allowing for Chelsea to get out their half and gain some much needed breathing space, albeit not for long.

Restricting Space

In the second half after being reduced to ten men and with the away goal in the bank, Chelsea deployed two banks in-front of their keeper designed to prevent Barcelona from playing in dangerous areas, and it worked. The hosts were restricted to plenty of possession but it wasn't in particularly threatening areas, and they struggling to get the ball wide to their ultimate downfall. Meireles, Lampard and Mikel did a sterling job in the middle providing spectacular protection to Chelsea's depleted back four, and this meant Sanchez and Messi rarely had space when nearer that 25 yards to goal.

Luck

Without doubt, Chelsea got that luck they needed. As Ruud Gullit stated, they had that "blue angel" sitting on their crossbar. Lionel Messi, normally deadly from the spot considering his two nerveless conversion in the quarter final against AC Milan, smashed his penalty in the 49th minute against the bar - and it was an obvious turning point. Chelsea started to believe that this could be their night, and re-invigorated their defensive efforts. Add that together with the fortune they got in the first leg too, and you just get the feeling it was meant to be. They would not be denied.

Chelsea - Cech 9, Ivanovic 8, Terry 2, Cahill 5, Cole 8, Ramires 9, Meireles 7, Mikel 7, Lampard 8, Mata 5, Drogba 8

Barcelona - Valdes 6, Puyol 6, Mascherano 6, Pique 5, Busquets 7, Cuenca 6, Iniesta 7, Xavi 7, Fabregas 6, Messi 6, Sanchez 6

HA

Moneyball - Who's Worth Their Salt?

After Damien Comolli was sacked from his position at Liverpool, the Merseyside club found their transfer strategy under increasing scrutiny. The Frenchman was rumoured to be obsessed with 'moneyball' - the theory used to great success by the Oakland Athletics baseball team - that it's all about the stats. So, using this saber-metric scale based upon evidence, just who are the smart buys in the Premiership this season?

Interestingly, Luka Modric (a Comolli signing) is the 4th 'best player' in the league based upon such stats, with a pass success percentage of almost 88%. According to these stats, Chelsea's high profile and big money chase of the Croatian midfielder would be justified, but it throws up an age old debate as many observers have stated that they believe Modric's recent form has diminished - and he's not got an assist or goal for some time now and only has four in total this season. Mikel Arteta is in at 7th on the list, and this is corroborated in the manner that Arsenal are yet to win without the little Spaniard in the side since he signed. Obviously there are all the big names you would expect in the top 20, but there are a few surprises which potential highlights the unsung heroes of the season. James Morrison of West Brom is in the mix, with 4 man of the match awards and an average rating of 7.14 in his 28 appearances this campaign for Roy Hodgson's men.

Another interesting talking point which arises is the fantastic season Newcastle have had, and their very own 'moneyball' transfer policy. Yohan Cabaye, signed for only around 5 million comes in the top 25 players, ahead of many more expensive purchases. Cabaye has 4 goals, 6 assists, not to mention the 80% pass success rate and the average four tackles a game. There are many other Newcastle players up there, all of whom have been signed for relatively small sums of money, for example Demba Ba who was a free transfer from West Ham. This just shows potentially how making astute signings based upon these stats can be the way forward, as Newcastle's charge into the top four is showing.

While those are the players to have shone, this statistical approach also throws up many issues of overrated players - or perhaps a feeling that the stats aren't what they are cracked up to be. Jamie Carragher is often considered a rock at the back for Liverpool - despite his increasing years - yet this information is particularly damaging to his reputation as a stalwart of the Merseyside club. Carragher only makes on average 1 tackle per game throughout his 18 appearances, and 16 of these have been starts. In terms of interceptions per game, the he only has an average of 0.7 per game, whereas the best defender statistically in the league (Vincent Kompany) has over 2. Looking to other teams in the league, Stoke's Jon Walters is in the lower levels with an average rating of just 6.36 and low passing and aerial results. Yet, the ex-Ipswich man has appeared in every single one of Stoke's games, showing that he is clearly still highly rated by the management. Is this that the stats are wrong, or Stoke are overrating him? Grant Holt, for all his plaudits, is only the 198th best player out of the 265 who have played enough games to qualify. In terms of goalkeepers, Shay Given is down in the bottom 50 players despite always being highly rated, and while fans often praise Pepe Reina for his distribution, it's actually one of the lowest amongst goalkeepers, with only a 60% success rate.

Obviously so much of this is subjective, and people will have different opinions on whether or not these stats have any relevance to performance of individuals and teams. However, it does offer a very interesting insight into performance and perception of certain players, and particularly the approach of Newcastle in the transfer market this season. With Comolli's firing from Liverpool it is clear their budgeting was all wrong, but the fees and stats suggest they didn't follow the 'moneyball' line closely at all. Therefore, maybe it was as much Dalglish pushing through the signings of players like Henderson and Downing, than it was Comolli.

HA

TB's Cricket Update - The County Championship

As we move through April and towards May, the County Championship gets into full swing, with most sides having already played a couple of games each. Here, TacticalBet takes a quick look at the contenders for success and failure this season, with the usual array of tips and predictions.

Division One

Lancashire claimed a historic victory last September, but an early season struggle has left them playing catch up, already 35 points behind early leaders Nottinghamshire - and are placed at 8.4 to retain their trophy. This means there are new favourites to achieve glory, and Warwickshire lead the betting at 4.5, with Surrey and Somerset also just under 5's. It would be a remarkable success if Surrey were to win having only just gained promotion last season, so it seems a step too far to back them. TB"s tips would be Somerset - always a threat in every competition and with some stellar names - and also Durham at 6.2, who have Graham Onions in fine early season form. In terms of relegation, the names to look out for would be Middlesex, already struggling, alongside Worcestershire.

Division Two

It's a lot more open down in Division Two, and as we've so often seen anybody can perform well. Hampshire, Yorkshire and Kent are all placed cheaply reflecting that they will be up there at the end of the season. However, Essex can't be counted out at 6's, with a strong side and having picked up 23 points in their opening game. Perhaps a left wing shout would be Derbyshire, every improving since their induction to the main competition, and they are 5.1 to be promoted in either of the top two slots come the end of the season.

Obviously with 16 games, there is such a long way to go and nothing will be decided until deep into August and early September. If the past few seasons are anything to go by, it could even go to the final game.

HA

Why Stamford Bridge Is The New Anfield

In past years, so many players, managers and commentators have spoken of those 'famous' nights on Merseyside, as Liverpool stormed to historic results at Anfield in Europe's greatest club competition, the Champions League. Knockout victories over the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid, as well as triumphs over domestic rivals Chelsea and Liverpool can rank amongst the top of some truly spectacular nights. Yet, as Liverpool slipped down into the Europa League, and now even failing to qualify for Europe through the Premiership, there was a new fortress arriving. After Tuesday nights incredible victory for Chelsea against the holders Barcelona at Stamford Bridge, there is a general feel that no team wants to be drawn in West London.

Boasting 5 semi-finals in 9 years, it is clear that Chelsea are developing European pedigree despite having never lifted the trophy. The atmosphere at Stamford Bridge is often complained against by rival fans within the English league, yet on these European nights it is becoming something of a cult experience. During the knockout stage, every single fan recieves a club flag, and these are waved with gusto and the players enter the field of play to the Champions League theme true. Tuesday night was a case in point, as Chelsea entered the game massive underdogs in a game they were widely expected to struggle in. It was 77 seconds before they even touched the ball, and this was due to a foul on Cesc Fabregas by Ivanovic. When the Blues finally did get the ball under control, it was greeted with great cheers. Comparing this back to some of the league games in SW6 this season, it is a marked change. This season, Chelsea was won every single game they have played at home in the Champions League, dispatching reputable sides like Leverkusen, Valencia, Napoli and Benfica - scoring 11 goals and just conceding the 2. This all game before a stunning 1-0 win over Barcelona yesterday. Their record cannot be argued against, and you can wager that nobody is relishing a trip to Stamford Bridge any time soon. Whatever happens in the 2nd leg in the Nou Camp, or indeed the rest of the season for the Blues, that win will rank as one of the greatest nights in Chelsea's relatively short yet successful European history.

HA

Chelsea Earn Liverpool Date

Chelsea booked their place in the FA Cup Final after dismantling London rivals Tottenham, although the game was not without controversy. The Blues were on the back half for much of the first period but struck in the final moments through a spectacular volley from Didier Drogba, but the real talking point came in their 2nd goal just after the break, Juan Mata's shot appearing not to cross the line despite the goal being given. In truth, despite Gareth Bale reducing the deficit the one goal, Spurs never recovered from this and Chelsea continued on their merry way to book a 4th final date in 6 years, an astonishing record by any club's standards. The game will simply heighten the increasingly embarrassing need for goal-line technology to come into action, the sooner the better as Redknapp's men will argue.

So, who are you backing for the final when Chelsea meet Liverpool in 3 weeks time back at Wembley? Dalglish's army will back themselves, having knocked Chelsea out on their way to League Cup glory this season already and with four consecutive wins over the Londoners now. But, with the Blues pedigree in this competition and their impressive recent form under interim coach Roberto Di Matteo, they are slight favourites.

Chelsea 1.72

Liverpool 2.28

HA

Weekend Analysis - Bolton Surrender Again

Bolton look like they could be heading for the Championship unless they start delivering results very quickly, and two deserved defeats over the Easter period will do nothing to fill their supporters with confidence. They do, still, remain with their destiny in their own hands and sit outside the bottom three, but form is such a crucial thing at this stage of the season and they just don't have it.

The Trotters surrenders meekly to Fulham at home over the weekend, before coming up short 2-0 against Newcastle today, and there were alarming signs of similarities in both defeats. A lot of the goals came with players not getting tight to their man, or simply failing to track runs or close opponents down (Dempsey's 2nd and Ben Arfa's first respectively) and this is criminal. Does it come down to a lack of confidence? Or a tiredness that is creeping through the squad? Everybody is full of sympathy for the events involving Muamba and can have sympathy for what they had to deal with, yet their job is to keep their club in the Premier League, and at the moment they are failing. Aside from their obvious defensive frailties, their are further issues. Going forward, they just can't seem to find the net with enough regularity. David N'Gog just can't provide that 'fox in the box' that the Wanderers are in desperate need of, and Kevin Davies operating as a target man cannot work without striking support.

Can they get out of this trouble? Of course, and all the teams except Wolves will feel that they have safety within touching distance. They have a series of home games till to play including winnable ones against West Brom and Swansea, so it's well within their own hands. That said, they must improve very soon.

HA

Weekend Analysis - Negative Chelsea Concede Ground

If Chelsea don't get a place in the Champions League - and it's now looking like they won't - they simply only have themselves to blame. After a third draw this season with Fulham, 1-1 at Craven Cottage, they've slipped to 6th, two points behind the final Champions League spot with their next game at Arsenal.

It's looking bleak for the Blues, and this performance gave them exactly what they deserved. It was worryingly back to the way they had performed under Andre Villas Boas, lots of possession around the back four with no end product and little attacking threat. The way they set up was mind boggling, with the knowledge that a 2 goal win would lift them into 4th above Newcastle and then Tottenham they chose to play defensively and offer nothing going forward. Lampard, who did manage a goal from the penalty spot, deployed in a deep defensive midfield role making no sense. Meireles just behind the strikers was not going to offer support to Torres, who displayed a forlorn figure with no support. Where does the blame lie for this? Undoubtedly, Di Matteo should hold his hands up and admit the tactics and selection were wrong. Chelsea has 57% possession, yet most of this was in the midfield or Chelsea's half, and they didn't deserve anything more.

That said, Chelsea did get in the lead through a hotly disputed penalty, and should have defended much better. Chelsea over the years have made a name for themselves tightly defending 1-0 leads, yet they always gave the impression they would concede chances, and Dempsey eventually punished them. Ivanovic, who despite his recent goalscoring exploits again showed no desire to defend and help out his team in the right back area. In modern football, with the speed of counter attack and skill of offensive players, every man must do his task in a defensive system, and full backs who simply selfishly do not wish to defend will never be an asset to their side. The change of Mata for Meireles with around 20 minutes remaining was another baffling moment in a damaging Monday night for Chelsea, the Spaniard again offering nothing defensively at a stage when the away team needed to begin closing out the game.

Chelsea need to take a long hard look at themselves and what they want to achieve from this season. They've placed all their eggs into the FA Cup and Champions League basket, but come next September they will sorely regret it if they are plying their trade in the Europa League.

HA

The Barcelona 'Conspiracy'

Undoubtedly, Pep Guardiola's Barcelona are the best footballing side in the world at the moment. They've brushed aside so many teams across so many competitions, whether it be in their own domestic La Liga, in Europe in the Champions League, and further overseas in the Club World Championship with wins over sides from Argentina and Brazil. But, there is a lingering sour taste in the mouth from several sides which offers up the question, do Barcelona receive preferential treatment from officials and governing bodies?

On the face of it, people will argue that this is clearly not true, and merely point to the Catalans success as example of their supreme footballing ability ahead of anything or else. Or, if that doesn't cover it, perhaps good fortune or a slice of luck here and there. Yet, there are incredible stats and matches which heavily suggest otherwise. Now, nobody is actually suggesting that there is a genuine 'conspiracy' but it does appear that they do get more than a helping hand.

Starting with that fateful night in West London, May 2009, where Chelsea were denied 4 clear cut penalties and suffered a gut wrenching defeat on away goals, it was almost too bizarre to be true. How could the referee, Tom Henning Ovrebo, not even award on spot kick to the hosts? The picture above shows a shirt pull from Abidal, as clear as can be. There was an even worse decision later, Pique providing a blatant handball in the area. Nobody, not even the most ardent Barcelona supporter, that the referee didn't see these as penalties. Therefore, he had entered the game with a crystal clear vision that he would not award a penalty against the Spanish visitors. 3 years on, we see Barcelona oust AC Milan in the Camp Nou, this time due to them getting a dubious penalty for a fairly innocuous shirt pull from Nesta. Firstly, for the referee to give this he should automatically be giving a penalty every single time a corner or free kick comes into the box, and also this penalty was awarded before the ball was even in play -against the rules of football. It simply appears too good to be true. Luck, or something more sinister? You can make your own minds up, but the stats certainly point one way.

However, there is something all together more alarming about the potential help that Barcelona are receiving from UEFA. Over the last 3 season, Barcelona have played 9 knockout ties in the Champions League. It is often noted how it is a benefit having the first leg away from home, as you can then fall back onto home comforts and home supports - and with Barcelona currently 53 games unbeaten everybody knows their strengths in front of their own fans. In these 9 ties, Barcelona have played 8 first legs away from home. The only one they didn't? The un-deserved triumph over Chelsea. Surely, this is too much of a co-incidence. To be repeatedly drawn favourably may of course just simply be luck, but over 3 years and 9 ties, it's almost too much to take.

While no slight against officials and governing bodies favouring the current European Champions will ever be proved, all football fans can make their own mind up. However, I will leave you with the words of Jose Mourinho, talking about the upcoming Chelsea vs Barcelona semi final - 'Chelsea won't be allowed to reach the final, and you know why'.

Odds on the 2011//12 Champions League :

Barcelona 1.95

Real Madrid 4

Bayern Munich 6 (TB's Tip)

Chelsea 12.5

Got an opinion? Think I'm completely wrong? Get in touch on Twitter, by searching by under Harry Aitkenhead or @aitkenheadhj

HA

Who Will Be The Master In Augusta?

It has been a year since Rory McIlory famously bottled it on the last day of the 2011 Masters and a lot has happened since then. McIlory has won his first Major at the US Open in Maryland last year, we have had three different Brits at number one in the world and Tiger Woods has been prowling in an ominous fashion with a tournament win in the last month.

So what to expect this year? Well, Phil Mickelson is always hard to write off having won at Augusta 3 times and for there to be an American winner is 4/5. Woods is in to 5/1, with bookies fearing he may have returned to somewhere near his best. Hunter Mahan looks good value at 33/1 and Bill Haas at 90/1 even better. It must surely be the year of the Europeans though?

McIlory, Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood lead them in

to battle as they hope to be the first European to win since Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999. Rose is the most attractive of those at 33/1 and looks good for a place. Donald went well here last year and could have it in him to make the step up this time around and is priced around 16/1. Jason Day and Adam Scott (both joint 2nd last year) should once more lead the charge from the rest of the world.

The infamous Amen Corner.

It has been 33 years since a debutant won at Augusta but watch out for Webb Simpson, currently ranked 10th in the world, as he tackles the course for the first time. In our opinion it is a very open competition, Woods' fitness is still in question and although McIlory proved he can cope with demands of the course last year, he may not have what it takes to win. We are going to steer clear of the two favourites this week in the hope of finding a bit of value.

TB's tips:

Luke Donald - 16/1

Justin Rose - 30/1

Hunter Mahan - 33/1 E/W

Webb Simpson - 66/1 E/W

Adam Scott Top Rest of the World - 9/2

WA

Weekend Analysis - Liverpool Losing Their Calm?

In the wake of yet another defeat for beleaguered Liverpool - they now only have 3 points from a possible 21 - manager Kenny Dalglish urged his side to regain their composure. It's all gone horribly wrong for Liverpool, and if the Premiership had started in January, they'd now be lying in 2nd bottom, with only Wolves below them. So, just why have they lost their cool?

Pepe Reina's red-card for a head-butt, while not the most physical of acts, couldn't be argued and his conduct was utterly ludicrous. An experienced pro like Reina, who has played over 300 times for Liverpool, completely lost his head and it's baffling to understand. Where does this come from? Andy Carroll also suffered a torrid return to his former home, and left the field when substituted to cacophony of boos and jeers, and then delivered a volley of abuse at his manager. Whatever it is, this must be settled in house as soon as possible as Liverpool have become a laughing stock. Maybe this comes from the boss himself, who continue to delude himself offering weak and pathetic excuses and stauch defences of his players even when maybe they don't deserve it.

It must be said however, that Newcastle were again superb. They've had a great season, and deserve all the plaudits that they get.

HA

Weekend Analysis - Chelsea's Future Plan

Chelsea's victory over Aston Villa on Saturday provided a potential case in point of what just could be in store for the Blues over the next few seasons. With Didier Drogba out with an unknown injury, Fernando Torres was given a rare entire 90 minutes, and this proved this change of approach and shape which represents what the Blues are looking to do.

As the picture above shows, David Luiz likes to carry the ball forward and pass his way out of defence, something which he is also clearly encouraged to do. Under previous, more hard working and perhaps not as stylish Chelsea sides defenders like Carvalho, Gallas and Alex were almost the opposite of this type of central defender. Luiz clearly has immense technical skill and talent and as the image depicts he weights a beautiful through-ball to Torres, who nearly scored the games opening goal only to be foiled by Given. The manner in which the Spaniard runs in behind shown also how their attacking threat has changed too. With Drogba looking set to leave in the close-season, it is maybe time for Chelsea to accept the need for a new era, and usher it in with players like Torres central. His preying on the last shoulder of defenders brings greater importance to the midfielders, particularly Juan Mata directly behind him. This is just one clip showing the importance of such new players to the side, and also the direction which they seem to be heading. It is one which does not seem to require power-houses like Drogba, and the Ivorian along with others could find themselves heading out of London in May. Yet, they can still have a significant impact to play in the remainder of the season and their service to the club must not be forgotten in a hurry.

HA