Djokovic : Australian Open Champion

Novak Djokovic beat Rafa Nadal :

5-7

6-4

6-2

6-7

7-5

Novak Djokovic clinched a spectacular Australian Open after a thrilling final against Rafa Nadal, a superb advert for the game of tennis. After almost 6 hours of sporting gold, Djokovic finally sealed the victory. In the deciding 5th set Djokovic fought back from 4-2 down to finally win 7-5, capping a great start to 2012 for the man who had such a stunning 2011. It was great testament to both athletes who came through 5 set semi finals just a few days ago, and in Nadal the spectacle had a loser who left with much acclaim and dignity after a great performance.

The next Grand Slam begins on May 28th, running till the 10th of June, which is Roland Garros and the French Open. You can be sure that these two, along with Federer and Murray, will be back battling it out for glory there.

HA

Super Sunday Predictions

Comeback Kings? - Henry and Scholes could face off again at The Emirates

With two massive Premiership games on today, Manchester City vs Tottenham, followed by Manchester United against Arsenal, TacticalBet will attempt to give our analysis and tips ahead of the action.

Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspur

The reverse of this fixture ended in a 5-1 drubbing in favour of the league leaders, but surely that won't happen again given the recent form of the two sides. Spurs have had some great results - and despite going on to only draw in their last game - they will be high on confidence. City aren't quite flying, but have still earned some decent results, and at home are always formidable.

Odds

MC - 1.91

TH - 4.5

Draw - 3.85

TB's Prediction - Manchester City 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal - Manchester United

Again, last time this was a heavy defeat for today's London side, this one ending an astonishing 8-2 in favour of Sir Alex's men. Arsenal's weakened back-line gives cause for many people to think that another defeat could be on the cards for Arsenal. They'll struggle to contain the riches which United boast up top. However, with Van Persie seemingly always scoring, and support from Henry, they aren't out of it by any stretch of the imagination. The odds reflect that home advantage could be significant, and Arsenal did win this game at home last year, 1-0 thanks to Ramsey's effort.

Odds

AFC - 2.84

MU - 2.76

Draw - 3.45

TB's Prediction - Arsenal 1-3 Manchester United

Transfer Talk

In recognition of the transfer window being in full flow now, TacticalBet's taken the opportunity to take a closer look at the potential moves, and the odds on those particular deals.

Chris Samba

The powerful Blackburn defender wants out of Ewood Park, having submitted a transfer request, but where will he go? A big money move to PSG is an option, at 33/1, but more likely destinations would be QPR or Tottenham, 11/10 and 6/4 respectively.

Fernando Torres to Malaga - 25/1

Adel Taarabt to Napoli - 5/1

Wayne Bridge

Having barely appeared for Man City over the last two years, it's a near certainty he'll move in this window, and if he doesn't he might as well stop being a footballer - such is his lack of game time. Arsenal have been linked, and interestingly he's evens to join them. Other suitors could be Fulham or Sunderland at 25/1 each, and QPR are again sniffing around.

Didier Drogba to Shanghai - 2/1

Nicky Maynard to Swansea 7/4

Junior Hoilett to Bolton - 14/1

Andy Johnson

An interesting one, as his contract is close to expiry and looks set to turn down a new deal. Evens to move to Blackburn, but could be heading to either Norwich or Bolton at 33/1, QPR (again) and potentially even the Championship with West Ham, with the Londoners in at 16/1.

Darren Bent to Liverpool - 7/4

Andy Carroll to Newcastle - 6/1

Luka Modric to Chelsea 7/1

Eden Hazard

A really hot prospect, and all of the top clubs around Europe are said to be lining up a move. Chelsea lead the charge at 7/4, and he would fit the bill in terms of a creative source in midfield to feed Torres. Arsenal follow at 14/1, Inter at 16's, and how about Russia's money machine, Anzhi to come in at 25 to 1?

Frank Lampard to Real Madrid - 11/1

Bobby Zamora to QPR - 5/2

There will be some serious action to keep up with in the remaining 12 days of the window, so be sure to keep up to date with all the moves on our Twitter site. TacticalBet will be here to take you through all the gossip and rumours as they happen.

HA

Cricket - England in Pakistan

Captain Strauss : Much to ponder ahead of the 2nd Test

So, England slumped to a dismal 10 wicket defeat in the first match against Pakistan, played in Dubai. Where did it all go wrong for the tourists? TacticalBet looks to assess the plight of the current top ranked team in world cricket, and cite areas for improvement in the next to games in the series.

There is a huge selection dilemma facing England in the next game. Do they decide to bolster their bowling options in Monty Panesar coming in for a batsmen (probably Eoin Morgan) or do they keep the longer batting line-up in the hope of improving on two sub-standard performances, being dismissed for 192 and 160. This was the first time England hadn't passed 200 in at least one innings since December 2010, at Perth. While the second spinner may seem a risk, TacticalBet's tip would be that England should opt for it, because they are already chasing the series. Also, Ajmal took 10 wickets in the game for Pakistan, a performance which will have caught much attention. The right arm off spinner is already 34, but having taken the most wickets out of anybody at this level last year, it a proven threat. England must go for the win in the next game at least, and could pay for this if a weak bowling attack hinders their chase for 20 wickets. Another decision to make would be whether Steve Finn comes into contention. While it appears clear that Tremlett will at least for now keep his place, he was wicket-less in his 21 overs. At 30 already, he must fear for his place with Finn only 22 and already boasting 50 wickets at an average of 27.

Perhaps the main key to success in this series, the first England have played in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, will be adapting to the conditions. It isn't too warm this time of year out there, but there will be little to no rain in the next two Tests, so this will enhance the prospect of a result. Therefore, England's men must bat long and hard, showing considerably better concentration and application that their exploits over the last few days. Cook, almost impossible to get out in the most recent Ashes series, practically threw his wicket away in the second innings, and this must improve. Likewise, Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell simply must contribute more, a return of 6 runs from the 4 innings they had is pitiful. On the bowling side of things, a lot of these Pakistan batsmen appear shaky when applied with pressure. England must keep the heat on them at all times, allowing no let ups. Being slick in the field will aid this aim.

Captain Strauss has already come out and said that England will 'not panic', but they certainly must up their game. Having worked hard to reach the number one spot, a lot of harder work lies ahead in order to stay there. The next test starts on the 25th of January.

2nd Test Odds -

Pakistan 3.3

England 3.45

Draw 2.38

HA

Being Frank : The Lampard Analysis

Frank Lampard has been the subject of so much speculation and debate this season, and despite a string of match defining performances it refuses to go away. So, in this piece TacticalBet attempts to get to the bottom of the discussion, and analyses his performance against his previous seasons and other factors.

Performance -

It's often been suggested and mooted that Lampard has somewhat been 'under-used' this season by Andre Villas Boas, with a few of substitute appearances throughout the first half of the season. Yet, it would be simply wrong to attribute this to the manager's dis-like of him, or preference for other players, and from looking at the stats it is clear to see he's just as valued as any other midfielder in the Chelsea squad. Lampard has appeared in 27 games so far this season, with 6 of those coming as a sub. Raul Meireles, a Villas Boas signing, has made the same amount, with one more of the 27 as a replacement. So any myth which states how Lampard is missing out as the club brings in newer younger players, would be un-founded. In terms of performance, Lampard's cannot be debated, as he is the clubs top scorer in all competitions, with 11 in total. This amount is the same as Anelka, Drogba and Torres all contributed put together, so any criticism of his goalscoring exploits is again over-played. These stats come together to show that any comments on his under-use and perhaps decline in performance is merely speculation from people looking for a story to unsettle the club. Had Thierry Henry scored the goal which Lampard did in the 1-0 win over Sunderland, the press would've raved over 'goalscoring instinct' and praised him for being a 'predator' to be in the right position. Yet, Lampard has had to content with being called 'lucky' and 'fortunate' instead of any real praise. Maybe all these stories of un-rest and discontent come from the manager's treatment of the player, although Villas Boas has stated on numerous occasions he is not for sale, 'at any price'.

Age -

Obviously at 33, he's not getting any younger and this has fueled much talk about how much longer 'Lamps' will continue to ply his trade in front of The Shed at Stamford Bridge. However, surely while a play continues to perform well, his age shouldn't have any bearing on opinions of the player? Giggs is now 38, and Scholes making a return at 37, Lampard is clearly much younger than these two. If as he gets old he has to be used less and less, this should not reflect detrimentally on him as a player, and as long as he contributes he should be commended. He is just 21 goals away from becoming Chelsea's top goalscorer of all time, in all competitions, a fantastic achievement to stand on 181 at the moment as a midfielder. Should he remain for the rest of his contract (18 months from January 2012) there is every chance he will achieve this feat. Another record on the horizon would be to become the first Chelsea man to make 100 appearances on the European stage. He is already top of that list at 89. So, he's getting older yes, but all great players must grow old at a point. However, he's still playing well, and surely he can be counted on to make more impacts in a Chelsea shirt before he's done.

It's blatantly obvious from looking at the stats that Lampard is still a much needed figure in the set-up at Chelsea, and none show this better than the way that only Petr Cech has made more appearances than him this season. Winners against Man City, Wolves and Sunderland stand out, and a hat-rick show at Bolton too. Therefore, any criticism of him does not stand up to the ultimate opponent in football - the stats.

HA

TacticalBet's Stats - The Managers

Following the much talked about sacking of Neil Warnock we decided to take a look at how managers have been performing based on the total wage bill of their clubs. Many people have viewed this as a seemingly fair way of analysing how a manager is doing compared with the strength of his playing squad. A leveller between managers if you like.

Fig 1 - A table showing the final league positions of the clubs competing in the 2010/2011 Premiership season, combined with their respective wage budgets compared with every team.

Based on the above table (click to enlarge) we can see that from the 2010/11 season Blackpool and West Brom performed well above expectations based on wage bill figures taken from May 2011. Despite this, Blackpool still got relegated on the last day of the season. So does this prove that without money you cannot succeed?

Luckily for the smaller clubs we don't think so as West Brom proved last season and have continued to do this season. Finishing 11th last season they did far better then many expected, having the 2nd lowest wage bill in the league. Wolves, Wigan, Stoke and Bolton also performed better than their wage bills would suggest.

Chelsea prop up the table, despite finishing second in the league as Carlo Ancelotti got the sack at the end of the season. This statistic is slightly misleading though as their total wage bill of 174m meant that even had they won all 38 games they would have only scored 0.65. So it is important to note a sides final league position combined with the points/wage score. Clearly Blackpool would not have considered the season a success owing to their relegation. Equally Chelsea should really be winning the league given that the wage bill was some 40m higher than anybody else.

Many often consider David Moyes, at Everton, to be the best 'pound for pound' manager in the league, but we would perhaps argue not based on last season and this season so far. Finishing 7th last season and having the 9th biggest wage budget, they performed close to expectations. The 'pound for pound' accolade would go to Roy Hodgson or Mark Hughes from last season. Hodgson guiding West Brom to safety and Hughes taking Fulham to 8th. Interestingly Hughes has just been appointed QPR boss and we expect this to be a solid appointment. He did well on a small budget at Blackburn and again at Fulham as highlighted. Whilst his period as Man City boss didn't go quite as planned he still made some solid purchases, Vincent Kompany most notably. We expect Hughes to do well again at QPR.

West Ham massively under achieved last season and ended up getting relegated. The management of Avram Grant be criticised for this as he had a host of highly paid players but still finished bottom of the league. Sam Allardyce has had an excellent start in trying to get West Ham back to the Premiership, proving that West Ham should have stayed up with their resources. Aston Villa and Liverpool were the other biggest underachievers based on this table, but their seasons were disrupted by managerial changes.

What does that teach us? Maybe nothing concrete but we certainly found it interesting. Our tip? QPR to be the best of the promoted teams at around 4/1.

WA

TacticalBet's Stats - The Half Time Team Talk

Following the excitement of the FA Cup at the weekend and ahead of another exciting week in football we take a look at the half time break and how this actually effects the results of matches. Manchester City's dramatic improvement following the break at Eastlands on Sunday prompted us to have a look at how much influence a manager's words can have on the performance.

Choosing to play 5-2-1-1, which became 3-4-1-1 when in possession, City almost snatched a replay against a faltering United. Mancini made key tactical changes which certainly made the second half more exciting for the neutral but ultimately did nothing to the result of the tie.

Looking at the results from the weekend, a small sample we know but still useful, we noticed that 23 of the 31 ties played, ended with the same result as was the case at half time. With only Newcastle and Southampton coming from behind at half time to win and 6 of the 12 games that were a draw at half time ended in draws. So perhaps the half time break isn't as much as a game changer as many pundits suggest.

Looking at the Premier League last season, we noted that 75% of teams who led at half time, went on to win the game. This was also the case in the previous 2 seasons as well, with 78% of teams in 2009/10 and 76% in 2008/9.

The other interesting trend we noticed is that this season in the Premier League if a game is a draw at half time then 34% of the time the game has ended in a draw. This doesn't mean there won't be any goals of course. The statistics for the draws becomes even more compelling when taking the top six sides out of the occasion. Matches between the other 14 sides that are all square at the break will end in a draw 40% of the time.

These stats provide an interesting insight into how important the opening half is to the outcome of a game. Teams that lead at half time very rarely give this lead up and managers who are drawing at half time are unlikely to go for broke in the second half, especially against sides around them in the table.

For punters looking to make money then make what you like of that but we suggest looking for draws during the half time interval, especially when the top six aren't involved. Backing the winning team to win at half time may seem too simple and with little return, but with a profit coming 75% of the time then there is money to be made.

WA

Warnock Out - Who's Next?

QPR announced on Sunday evening that Neil Warnock had left the club leading to much speculation on who would replace him. It seems a strange decision by the board to get rid of Warnock who is well liked by the fans and, whilst they haven't had a win in 8 games, Warnock was the one who took them from 20th in the Championship to the Premier League. Maybe Mr Fernandes just got fed up of the constant attraction that Warnock's outspoken opinions seemed to generate. It is possible to draw similarities between Chris Hughton's sacking from Newcastle last season, a manager who the board believed was not good enough to take the club to the next level. Few would now argue with Mike Ashley's decision, so perhaps Tony Fernandes should be given a chance. For now, it certainly seems harsh on Warnock.

Mark Hughes has been made the early favourite by the bookies and we have compiled a list of possible candidates.

Mark Hughes

Hughes is readily available having left Fulham last year and would bring with him a strong back room staff. He is well connected following his work at Man City, Fulham and also the Wales national side. Hughes left Fulham with the intention of managing at a higher level in the future and whether the QPR job would appeal to him remains to be seen. Odds: 1/2

Gianfranco Zola

Zola has emerged as a surprise contender for the job. Also currently without a job having left West Ham in 2010 he would be more of a risk than Hughes owing to his lack of experience. Zola's footballing philosophy would certainly be appreciated by the QPR fans, but whether he could bring the stability that the club needs would be another question. Odds: 11/8

Rafa Benitez

Another big name, and another jobless manager. Benetiz would surely be popular with the supporters and brings a wealth of experience despite his failure at Inter Milan. He has European pedigree and would attract some big names with the money that QPR have. Odds: 8/1

Steve Bruce

Bruce has only just left Sunderland and could be offered a swift return to football. The fact he hasn't been out of football long means he could fit back into management fairly quickly. One stumbling block may be the move down south from the north east. Odds: 14/1

Sven Goran Eriksson

An outside shout but he could be the big name that QPR are looking for. He would bring a wealth of experience and a huge base of contacts for bringing in players. Out of a job since he left Leicester in October 2011, Sven may be keen for one last crack at English football after a so far less than inspiring record. And who knows, we may yet see David Beckham in the Premier League again if Sven takes charge. Odds: 14/1

Whoever the QPR board go for they will need to settle in quickly and start picking up points soon as well as doing some business in this transfer window. QPR are a sinking ship at the moment and Warnock was a popular man on the terraces so it will be a difficult job for the new man. Our tip? Well Hughes is the early favourite, but we wouldn't be surprised if Tony Fernandes tried to get a slightly bigger name, so we're gonna go for Sven.

WA

Chelsea 1-3 Aston Villa - The Verdict

Trouble at the Bridge : Ireland levels for Villa

Harry Aitkenhead at Stamford Bridge

TacticalBet

If the draw at Wigan was an un-expected setback, and the home points dropped against neighbours Fulham a disaster, then this was a calamitous event beyond all thoughts. Under Jose Mourinho, Chelsea didn't lose once at home, a run stretching from 2004 to 2007, and yet know they've lost three times in-between the 29th of October and the 31st of December. An even more damning comparison, in March 2010 they beat Aston Villa 7-1 at home, with Malouda, Lampard and Zhirkov running riot. Now, under two years later, they were comprehensively and humiliatingly beaten. Where did it all go wrong?

Structure

Having a birds-eye view at the top of the West Stand for yesterdays game, it's so simple to pick holes in Chelsea's structure, of severe lack of it. While the 4-3-3 formation means a tight three in midfield, this means it is crucial that the wide two of the front three provide width. Juan Mata drifted aimlessly over the pitch, and while he might make some nice touches and crosses, this disrupts the whole structure of the side. There were notable occasions when Mata would arrive on the right wing next to Daniel Sturridge, and with Didier Drogba down the middle, who was on the left? Crosses would float over and there wouldn't be a blue shirt within 30 yards of the left touchline. This also makes it painfully easy to defend against, as any space Sturridge may create would be killed by Mata who brings more defenders over to him. Is this Villas Boas telling Mata he can do what he wants? Or is the Spaniard simply not responding to team orders? Either way, it's selfish play and it's damaging the team. If you look at the almost unbeatable Chelsea team of the years 2004 to 2006, it was based upon a rigid structure. This has just disappeared. When Torres replaced Sturridge, it became impossible for anybody to establish what formation Chelsea were playing. Drogba and Torres were down the middle, with Lampard, Ramires and Meireles in the midfield. So where was Mata playing? Nowhere. There was no width, with two notorious wide men in Malouda and Kalou sat warming the bench. With this kind of tactics, it is no wonder that Chelsea haven't scored more than two goals in a game since the 3rd of December.

Team Selection

Throughout the game there were continued whispers of discontent at Andre Villas Boas' team selection. Where was Malouda or Kalou? Selecting two right backs on the bench, Hutchinson and Bosingwa, was also bizarre, with 18 million pound man Romelu Lukaku nowhere to be seen amongst the substitutes. Choosing to bring on Bosingwa for Ferreira with 15 minutes to go was another decision greeted with utter disbelief from the Chelsea faithful, disrupting a defence which then went on to ship two late goals. Another controversial decision would be the one to pick both Romeu and Meireles in midfield, two seemingly defensive minded midfielders. Raul Meireles rarely got forward, and his passing and shooting was utterly dreadful. Despite Lampard's obvious error for the 3rd goal, it was obvious to all to see that he should have been starting. Using TacticalBet's IPR (Individual Player Rater) which takes into account all the stats of accuracy such as passing and shooting, Meireles scored a pitiful 3.7 out of 10. Surely there must be a better option, or deploy him as the designated defensive midfielder and sacrifice Romeu.

Impatience

This can be a point directed at both this game, and Chelsea as a football club on the whole. With the score at 1-1, while it wouldn't be a great result by any stretch of imagination, it would've meant keeping pace with Tottenham, who drew, and gaining on Manchester United who lost too. However, Villas Boas threw on Torres with no plan, encouraged his players to charge forward, and the game was lost before you could even think it possible. The same happened against Arsenal on the 29th of October, when Juan Mata equalised late on and Chelsea again lunged forward, to be caught similarly twice on the break and lose. Another example would be Glen Johnson's late winner when Liverpool visited, with Chelsea pouring forward only to be undone in the 87th minute and lose 2-1. That's three points thrown away due to impatience, and it reflects other aspects of Chelsea's business. In the summer,when their pursuit of Luka Modric feel short, they panicked and signed their second choice, Meireles, and as discussed above, he's hardly set Stamford Bridge alight. A further, more poignant example would be the dismissal of Ancelotti last season, after a trophy-less season. Would this game have been lost had the Italian still been at the helm? The general consensus after the game was that it most certainly wouldn't have been.

While it would appear hasty at best to sack Andre Villas Boas, there is no denying it that Chelsea are a team in a serious crisis. Already three points adrift of 4th place, if they don't secure Champions League football next season they will be in serious trouble. They won't get the financial income, and that will mean Roman Abramovic will have to pump more money in. In the long-term, this would mean if they qualified the next season, Chelsea wouldn't meet UEFA's financial fair play rules, and wouldn't be allowed to compete. A disaster looming large for The Blues, and they can't afford to just sit back and let it happen, washing it away with endless excuses. The fans have had enough of Villas Boas' moans about 'misfortune' and 'bad luck', and the more he paints over the cracks, the more appear. While Chelsea remain fourth favourites to qualify for the Champions League at 1.88, they are now 85/1 to win the title. Who can remember the last time Chelsea were that high at this stage of the season?

HA