TacticalBet's Stats - The Half Time Team Talk

Following the excitement of the FA Cup at the weekend and ahead of another exciting week in football we take a look at the half time break and how this actually effects the results of matches. Manchester City's dramatic improvement following the break at Eastlands on Sunday prompted us to have a look at how much influence a manager's words can have on the performance.

Choosing to play 5-2-1-1, which became 3-4-1-1 when in possession, City almost snatched a replay against a faltering United. Mancini made key tactical changes which certainly made the second half more exciting for the neutral but ultimately did nothing to the result of the tie.

Looking at the results from the weekend, a small sample we know but still useful, we noticed that 23 of the 31 ties played, ended with the same result as was the case at half time. With only Newcastle and Southampton coming from behind at half time to win and 6 of the 12 games that were a draw at half time ended in draws. So perhaps the half time break isn't as much as a game changer as many pundits suggest.

Looking at the Premier League last season, we noted that 75% of teams who led at half time, went on to win the game. This was also the case in the previous 2 seasons as well, with 78% of teams in 2009/10 and 76% in 2008/9.

The other interesting trend we noticed is that this season in the Premier League if a game is a draw at half time then 34% of the time the game has ended in a draw. This doesn't mean there won't be any goals of course. The statistics for the draws becomes even more compelling when taking the top six sides out of the occasion. Matches between the other 14 sides that are all square at the break will end in a draw 40% of the time.

These stats provide an interesting insight into how important the opening half is to the outcome of a game. Teams that lead at half time very rarely give this lead up and managers who are drawing at half time are unlikely to go for broke in the second half, especially against sides around them in the table.

For punters looking to make money then make what you like of that but we suggest looking for draws during the half time interval, especially when the top six aren't involved. Backing the winning team to win at half time may seem too simple and with little return, but with a profit coming 75% of the time then there is money to be made.

WA